Dublin Opinion

The ESRI’s analysis of the effects of budget tightening on the recovery raises many good points. It may also be correct in its view that an adjustment of the magnitude being contemplated would depress economic growth to the point that public debt dynamics become unmanageable. But it may not. The truth is that nobody knows, because there is no accurate way of predicting the relationship between fiscal policy and the real economy. (Irish Times, 21 October 2010)

The recession is over. But unemployment and future risks remain. Economic growth has returned.” (Irish Times, 1 July 2010)

The literature on fiscal consolidation processes internationally shows clearly that success comes from cutting spending… (Irish Times, 20 March 2009)

The global gloom is overdone. Investor sentiment internationally has over-reacted to America’s woes. Moreover, the US policy response to the slowdown has been unprecedented, both in its speed and its magnitude. Outside the US, the rest of the global economy is enjoying one of its strongest periods of economic expansion ever. As most of this is driven by strong fundamentals, we at the Economist Intelligence Unit are forecasting only a modest slowdown globally in 2008 and continued strong expansion over the medium term.” (Quarterly Daft Report, 12 February 2008)