PREDICTING THE FUTURE WITH THE ESRI
Jul 23rd, 2010 by Conor McCabe
Now, the impression I get from the above quote is that the ESRI was warning about property bubbles as far back as 2001. It doesn’t actually say that, I know. What it says is that John Fitzgerald was signalling ‘the inappropriate nature of fiscal policy’ as far back as 2001, but the way the paragraph is structured, it leads one to conclude that Fitzgerald was warning about bubbles in his warnings about fiscal policy.
Well, this is what he said back in 2001. It’s from Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: The Case of Ireland, which is the only 2001 article by Fitzgerald that’s cited in the bibliography for Recovery. It’s available online here.
The danger for the Irish economy with the current expansionary stance of fiscal policy is that, by adding to inflationary expectations in the labour market and the property market, the real exchange rate may overshoot - there may be an excessive rise in labour costs. Unless wage rates adjust instantaneously to clear the market, wage rate overshooting could prove costly. For this reason stimulatory fiscal policy, that accelerates the rate of wage inflation, is unwise. It could expose the economy to unnecessary dislocation in the event of an unexpected external shock. The cost that would be involved in pursuing a tighter fiscal stance today would be a temporary delay in consumption. The cost involved in the current pro-cyclical stance is an increased danger of increased economic disruption in the future.” Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: The Case of Ireland, p.15
There is absolutely NOTHING about bank lending and bubbles in the footnoted paper. Its concern with 2001 fiscal policy is with regard to its effect on wages, not housing and commercial property.
This is the Irish average industrial wage with regard to inflation. Fitzgerald saw this as one to watch.
And here’s the average industrial wage in relation to house prices, which Fitzgerald didn’t.
And here’s Alan Vega and Martin Rev, ‘cos after reading not one but two papers by John Fitzgerald, I need something to remind me of the beauty that human talent and energy is capable of.
Wonderful Suicide yune. Bruce Springsteen sometimes covers it in concert.
That alien guy rings bells bigtime. What is the original comic?
It’s the Mekon, from 2000AD.
The Eagle, you mean.
Also 2000AD, but originally the Eagle for those of a certain age.
Whoops, just exposed myself as a bit of a daddy-o. I used to read the Eagle in the early 80s. One character who sticks in my mind was Golden Boy, a blond haired kid from the deepest Africa who had grown up in the jungle and gone on to use his feral athleticism in his quest for Olympic glory. Sort of Aryan supremacist, boy’s own-style.
The Mekon came with Dan Dare into 200AD. And it was noticeable even as a child that Dan Dare wasn’t really 2000AD stuff. He was very much a stiff upper lip hero like something from Victor, whereas Judge Dredd, Strontium Dog and Ro-Jaws and Hammerstein lived in these broken-down futures. Even Invasion was more like Jack Regan fighting the Russians than Boys Own.
I think your detournement of the Mekon is unfair. Dan Dare is the bad guy, as all good punks know.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FG6z8jnS2U
http://www.iasc-culture.org/publications_article_2010_Summer_mirowski.php
Looks interesting
Jim M
I was a 2000ad kid. Of course I’d forgotten it but that guy nearly jumped out of the sceeen at me.
John can confirm this (as he even remembers The Mekons from before they had their electricity cut off) but wasn’t the Eagle stuff in 2000AD (including Dan Dare) a revival of a late 50s/early 60s incarnation of the comic? I think that’s why it looked a bit dated beside Judge Dredd etc.
Although the Mekons track is fairly nifty, have to disagree with your point John. Between Dan Dare and the Mekon, I think ol big green ‘ed looks more like the average Irish economist than DD
He’s the spit of Kevin Myers, I’d have said.