Dublin Opinion

Continuing on from our August 2009 post on the Quarterly Household Survey (QHS), Q1 2009, this is a look at employment and unemployment in the Republic, Oct-Dec ‘08 to Oct-Dec ‘09, based on the QHS Q4 2009.

We know that due to the government’s active pursuit of deflation, Ireland’s GNP shrank by world-beating 11.3% in 2009. How did that play out in terms of occupations, industry, employment and unemployment?

A few words on the QHS and its methodologies, though, before we begin.

There are nine broad occupational groups used by the Quarterly Household Survey.

1. Managers and Administrators
2. Professional
3. Associate Professional and Technical
4. Clerical and Secretarial
5. Craft and Related
6. Personal and Protective Service
7. Sales
8. Plant and Machine Operatives
9. Other

These groups are based on the SOC - the Standard Occupational Classification - which was developed in 1990 and revised in 2000. The Household Survey broad groupings have been adapted from the UK SOC to reflect Irish occupational structures and realities. Unfortunately, the breakdown of those broad groupings into specific occupations is not available on the CSO’s website, so it’s not so straightforward to find out what changes have been made. However, they will give you the breakdown upon request.

Just for now, though, I’m going to work off the premise that the sub-major, minor group and unit group structures of these major groups are broadly similar to the SOC 2000. There are going to be differences, but they are not going to be of such a nature as to change the dynamics of the broad groupings. In other words, the lists of occupations as given by the SOC 2000 should give a good enough indication of the type of occupations that each broad grouping is dealing with, and the links above are to the SOC 2000 occupation listings.

One other thing.

The Quarterly Household Survey is a sample survey. It works from a ‘pool’ of 195,000 households. These households are spread across the country, and are split into 2,600 sections, with each section containing 75 households. Each quarter, 15 households out of each block of 75 is sampled, giving an aggregate of 39,000 households each quarterly survey. The 15 households in each block are asked to contribute to five consecutive quarterly surveys, after which the 15 are replaced by another 15 within the same block. After five years, the ‘pool’ is exhausted, and the process begins again.

So each quarterly survey is based on 39,000 households, or around 2.7% of the entire number of households in the state. The CSO then uses that survey to build up a national picture. The size and spread of the sample survey allows such a national analysis, especially since we’re dealing with trends. But do keep in mind that the official-sounding numbers that are published in the survey are extrapolations from this ‘pool’ of sample participants.

Finally, the Q4 2009 report carries a health-warning regarding the agricultural sector. There was an unusually large drop-off in this sector in 2009 and the CSO is still investigating whether the figures are broadly accurate or whether there is a methodological fault at work.

So, with all the necessary caveats in mind, what can the QHS tell us about work in Ireland in 2009?

1. Occupations

For the second year in a row, craft and related occupations, and plant and machine operatives, have been the main casualties, closely followed by the amorphous ‘other’.

The loss of an estimated 166,900 jobs in twelve months is serious enough, but how do these losses play out in relation to the national tallies for each broad occupational grouping? In other words, how does the 70,800 jobs lost within craft and related occupations play out as a percentage of the number of people within that grouping?

At least 1 in 4 of every craft and related job disappeared in 2009.

1 in 6 of every plant and machine operative job disappeared.

1 in 12 of every sales-related job disappeared.

With regard to professional occupations, that figure is 1 in 40.

And for associate professional or technical occupations, that figure is 1 in 37.

When we look at the patterns of employment from December 2007 to December 2009, though, the class aspect of the current economic depression couldn’t be more stark. (All quarterly figures are available in Excel format from the CSO here.

An estimated 250,000 jobs were lost in the two-year period, yet there was an actual rise in employment among Ireland’s professional classes, while associate professional and technical occupations recorded the smallest of declines, less then 0.2%.

During the same period, craft-related occupations shrunk by 36%, sales by 12%, plant and machine operatives by 30%.

[Job gains/losses, December ‘07 to December ‘09]

Finally, how have these changes to occupation aggregates affected the overall levels of employment by occupation in Ireland?

Again, the largest drops are in skilled and unskilled occupations, with professional and managerial positions experiencing a relatively modest drop.

Clearly, occupations alone isn’t enough to give us a sense of what was happening to the Irish economy during 2009. However, the QHS does show us that the myth of this recession as a ‘middle class’ recession, with the poor oppressed middle classes heroically carrying the working classes on their manicured backs, is just that, a myth. Jobs have been wiped out, welfare has been slashed, while the middle classes have been getting paper cuts on their fingers and screaming “but it HURTS!!!” as they sulk behind the latest D&G glasses and stomp their Ferragamo shoes.

(Part two will cover the QHS and broad economic sectors during 2009.)