Comments on: AUSTIN HUGHES: SUPER-ECONOMIST http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/ It's a group blog. What more do you need to know? Thu, 24 May 2012 08:27:28 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.1 By: Conor McCabe http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72880 Conor McCabe Thu, 15 Apr 2010 09:21:54 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72880 It's true. In terms of circulation the economy is still shrinking. The latest figures show that, yet all the talk is of increased volume. It's a bit like saying that although our bus ran out of fuel 50 miles before we got home because we couldn't afford to buy more petrol, at least we had more passengers paying less sitting in the bus than before. So we're failing to get people where they want to go, but at least we're failing with less money and more people than before. I suppose the CSO would see as a victory the sinking of the Titanic if more people had actually stayed on the ship. Yeah, sure the boat sank, but look at the <em>volume </em>of victims. It’s true. In terms of circulation the economy is still shrinking. The latest figures show that, yet all the talk is of increased volume. It’s a bit like saying that although our bus ran out of fuel 50 miles before we got home because we couldn’t afford to buy more petrol, at least we had more passengers paying less sitting in the bus than before. So we’re failing to get people where they want to go, but at least we’re failing with less money and more people than before.

I suppose the CSO would see as a victory the sinking of the Titanic if more people had actually stayed on the ship. Yeah, sure the boat sank, but look at the volume of victims.

]]> By: Michael Taft http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72879 Michael Taft Thu, 15 Apr 2010 09:08:52 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72879 Conor, while I understand your concern over verification and the 'testing of analysis', many of our economists have transcended such obsessions and have embraced the true post-modernist spirit. House prices going up or down? Hey, it's all relative. Relative to what? Relative to our self-constructed and self-vindicated relativeness. Normal tests don't operate in this la la land. Better to treat such predictions not as analysis but rather as a strange semiotics. The 'communication' involved does not signify content, but rather the communicator - as long as they are being asked to write commentaries, they are by definition 'experts'. Joking aside (and please keep up this series of 'what did you say in the past and why should we care what you say now'), your point re: retail sales is well-taken. While its hard to read from gross figures (you have to go into the sub-sector detail), we can see that for long periods up to December last year, using the excl.mortor sales indicators, value was being cut to protect volume (though both were going down). In December and January volume was sluggish but value went up - which suggests that retailers took advantage of people's desire to buy things at this time of year (not necessarily a bad thing - as I said, value was being cut at a faster rate than volume for considerable periods). However, in February we returned to value cuts to protect volume. This is a far cry from the 'turn the corner' brigade. While annual decline is lessening, that's all its doing - but from some commentary, you'd think there were real gains. But, hey, value, volume - it's all relative dude. Conor, while I understand your concern over verification and the ‘testing of analysis’, many of our economists have transcended such obsessions and have embraced the true post-modernist spirit. House prices going up or down? Hey, it’s all relative. Relative to what? Relative to our self-constructed and self-vindicated relativeness. Normal tests don’t operate in this la la land. Better to treat such predictions not as analysis but rather as a strange semiotics. The ‘communication’ involved does not signify content, but rather the communicator - as long as they are being asked to write commentaries, they are by definition ‘experts’.
Joking aside (and please keep up this series of ‘what did you say in the past and why should we care what you say now’), your point re: retail sales is well-taken. While its hard to read from gross figures (you have to go into the sub-sector detail), we can see that for long periods up to December last year, using the excl.mortor sales indicators, value was being cut to protect volume (though both were going down). In December and January volume was sluggish but value went up - which suggests that retailers took advantage of people’s desire to buy things at this time of year (not necessarily a bad thing - as I said, value was being cut at a faster rate than volume for considerable periods). However, in February we returned to value cuts to protect volume. This is a far cry from the ‘turn the corner’ brigade. While annual decline is lessening, that’s all its doing - but from some commentary, you’d think there were real gains. But, hey, value, volume - it’s all relative dude.

]]> By: Donagh http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72873 Donagh Wed, 14 Apr 2010 23:03:38 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72873 Is there a private company in the country that though in profit is not, at the very least using the recession to imposing a pay freeze? They'd be mad not too. But we also know that they are cutting pay in lower wage positions while rewarding management with 'incentive' based bonuses. Is there a private company in the country that though in profit is not, at the very least using the recession to imposing a pay freeze? They’d be mad not too. But we also know that they are cutting pay in lower wage positions while rewarding management with ‘incentive’ based bonuses.

]]> By: Conor McCabe http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72872 Conor McCabe Wed, 14 Apr 2010 22:45:30 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72872 These guys got it wrong, constantly got it wrong, and their opinion still matters. So much for meritocracy. These guys got it wrong, constantly got it wrong, and their opinion still matters.

So much for meritocracy.

]]> By: WorldbyStorm http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72871 WorldbyStorm Wed, 14 Apr 2010 22:28:10 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72871 I'm mighty suspicious of the following: "Furthermore, two-thirds of businesses interviewed have reduced pay levels in recent years, with an average pay cut of 13 per cent imposed on staff." Interviewed - eh? Hmmmm. I'd say it was a nice find the above, but it's not really. It's a hurl the fucking mouse, pardon my french, at the wall sort of a find. And the keyboard after it. I’m mighty suspicious of the following:

“Furthermore, two-thirds of businesses interviewed have reduced pay levels in recent years, with an average pay cut of 13 per cent imposed on staff.”

Interviewed - eh? Hmmmm.

I’d say it was a nice find the above, but it’s not really. It’s a hurl the fucking mouse, pardon my french, at the wall sort of a find. And the keyboard after it.

]]> By: Conor McCabe http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72868 Conor McCabe Wed, 14 Apr 2010 22:12:40 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72868 I've just been reading the CSO's retail survey, and while the volume of sales is up in certain sectors, the actual value of those sales is down. People are buying cheap stuff, and more of it, but nowhere near enough to add any growth to the economy. There is less and less money circulating in this economy, and that trend is continuing. I’ve just been reading the CSO’s retail survey, and while the volume of sales is up in certain sectors, the actual value of those sales is down. People are buying cheap stuff, and more of it, but nowhere near enough to add any growth to the economy. There is less and less money circulating in this economy, and that trend is continuing.

]]> By: Donagh http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72867 Donagh Wed, 14 Apr 2010 22:03:37 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2010/04/14/austin-hughes-super-economist/#comment-72867 <blockquote>“The spring 2010 survey seems to confirm that the worst is over for the Irish economy, even if there are few signs of any dramatic improvement,” Mr Hughes said. Some sectors appear to be recovering more quickly than others, however.</blockquote> Oh no, the economy's fucked.

“The spring 2010 survey seems to confirm that the worst is over for the Irish economy, even if there are few signs of any dramatic improvement,” Mr Hughes said. Some sectors appear to be recovering more quickly than others, however.

Oh no, the economy’s fucked.

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