DUBLIN RENTS AND IRISH JOURNALISM: THE MYTH OF DEMAND
Dec 7th, 2007 by Conor McCabe
There are some people who ask: is there a conflict of interest between owning a property website and reporting the facts?
It is asked as if it is a reasonable point to hold - as if any other answer, except to say, “of course there’s a conflict of interest you fucking idiot”, is somehow possible.
Now, in Ireland, the two main newspapers own property websites: The Irish Times with myhome.ie, and the Irish Independent with propertynews.com. As such, the chances of getting anything approaching a balanced view of the Irish property market is simply impossible - given the fact that both have invested heavily in what is a multi-billion Euro industry. And nowhere has this bias shown itself more clearly than in last week’s pronouncements by the Independent and the Irish Times that rents are going up, and that once again it is a good time to buy.
Last week I downloaded the details of the first one hundred properties for rent in Dublin, as listed on Daft.ie. It is now eight days later, and I’ve returned to those listings, to see how they are getting on. what I found is that rents continue to drop in the capital. Not only that, the vast majority of properties remain unoccupied. I also discovered that the majority of these properties have been re-listed under new/re-listed, in that today, their page says something like “ENTERED TODAY, 6 HOURS 43 MINUTES AGO” when in fact I’ve got a copy of the page that’s at least seven days old. I suppose the “/” gets daft.ie out of any trouble, but it seems that there is a seven day cycle on daft.ie, which can give the illusion of fast-moving rentals - when nothing could be further from the truth.
Overall, of the one hundred properties, only fifteen have found people to rent them. That leaves eighty five properties still on the market, of which eight have dropped their asking price.
Below, the properties that have dropped in rent.
1. Blokye, Harbour Road, Dalkey, South Co. Dublin. 3 bedrooms. Daft reference: www.daft.ie/212111. Listed on 29 November at €3,750 a month. Now, €3,500 a month.
2. 62 The Cresent, Carrickmines Manor, Carrickmines, Dublin 18. 2 bedrooms. Daft reference: www.daft.ie/214254. Listed on 29 November at €1,750 a month. Now, €1,650 a month.
3. Beacon South Quarter, Sandyford, Dublin 18, South Co. Dublin. 2 bedrooms. Daft reference: www.daft.ie/229336. Listed on 29 November at €1,700 a month. Now, €1,600 a month.
4. Duncairn Court, Sweetmans Avenue, Blackrock, South Co. Dublin. 2 bedrooms. Daft reference: www.daft.ie/212687. Listed on 29 November at €1,800 a month. Now, €1,600 a month.
5. Cedarhurst Green, Phoenix Park Racecourse, Castleknock, Dublin 15. 2 bedrooms. Daft reference: www.daft.ie/24583. Listed on 29 November at €1,650 a month. now, €1,500 a month.
6. Cubes 6, Beacon South Quarter, Sandyford, Dublin 18. 2 bedrooms. Daft reference: www.daft.ie/28256. List on 29 November at €1,750 a month. now, €1,700 a month.
7. Duncairn Court, Blackrock, South Co. Dublin. 2 bedrooms. Daft reference: www.daft.ie/212855. Listed on 29 November at €1,800 a month. now, €1,600 a month.
8. Shrewsbury Park, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4. 3 bedrooms. Daft reference: www.daft.ie/27056. Listed on 29 November at €4,000 a month. Now, €3,500 a month.
I’ll list the rented accommodation later on today. Below are the ads as presented on Daft.ie last week, 30 November 2007. nothing much. Just a silly thing called evidence - something that the Ron Burgandys of Irish journalism could do with swotting up.
(Added 2.35pm) Here: the properties that have found tenants.
1. Slaney Lodge, 38 Upper Rathmines Road, Rathmines, Dublin 6. Studio. €750 per month.
2. St Andrews Hall, Main Street,, Lucan, West Co. Dublin. One bedroomed. €1,000 per month.
3. Dollymount Grove, Clontarf, Dublin 3. Three bedroomed. €2,100 a month.
4. Boroimhe Hawthorns, Swords, North Co. Dublin. Two bedroomed. €1,250 a month.
5. Pembroke Square, Dublin 2, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4. Three bedroomed. €2,250 a month.
6. Mountbrook, Stillorgan, South Co. Dublin. Two bedroomed. €1,500 a month.
7. Merton Drive, Ranelagh, Dublin 6. Four bedroomed. €3,500 a month.
8. The Cubes, Beacon South Quarter, Sandyford, Dublin 18. Two bedroomed. €1,700 a month.
9. Crosbies Yard, Ossory Road, North Strand, Dublin 3. Two bedroomed. €1,500 a month.
10. Hollybank Avenue Lower, Ranelagh, Dublin 6. Three bedroomed. €2,500 a month.
11. Silchester Wood, Glenageary, South Co. Dublin. Five bedroomed. €4,000 a month.
12. Collegewood, Castleknock, Dublin 15. Six bedroomed (three single, three double). €3,000 a month.
13. Amber, The Grange (Off Brewery Road), Stillorgan. Two bedroomed. €1,600 a month.
14. Clarion Quay, Custom House Square, IFSC, Dublin 1. One bedroomed. Short-term lease. €590 a week.
15. 11A Lansdowne Valley Apartments, Slievebloom Road, Drimnagh, Dublin 12. One bedroomed. €1,150 a month.
Great work, Conor.
Very good.
A headline from today’s Independent:
Negative equity for St. Patrick’s Day instead of Valentine’s, then.
There was a pretty even-handed article about the state of the rental market in yesterday’s Irish Times.
As someone who has spent the past year trying to sell both my apartment and that of my new wife, so that we can set up a proper home together, I am slightly disconcerted by the hint of glee in your investigations into the market.
Few sensible people liked the idiocy and cynicism that drove the property boom, but real, blameless people are suffering now.
Few sensible people liked the idiocy and cynicism that drove the property boom, but real, blameless people are suffering now.
And the people they should be blaming are sitting in Dail Eireann -not running a left of centre blog. I don’t think anyone here is taking any delight in the negative equity that a lot of recent homebuyers find themselves in; I think a certain amount of schadenfreude is permissible when it comes to the army of BTL baby landlords; told the market could only rise, and believing it, not from any real analysis, but from greed.
Believe me, I take no “glee” from any of this. One point, though. Idiocy did not drive the property boom. Government policy did that - the sole focus of which was the construction industry and the vested interests therein. The financial backers of Fianna Fáil and the PDs have taken not only “glee”from the suffering of hundreds of thousands of Irish people - they’ve taken billions of Euros as well.
The point of the article is that the Irish media is talking about “rent to buy” as an option, and are pointing to apparent rises in rentals, when the truth lies elsewhere. The very same people who told Ireland to “buy buy buy “are now telling us to “buy to rent.” If you find my article disconcerting, so be it. But remember, I’m not the one who is trying to screw you.
Mr. Tagomi, I’ve just had a read of the Irish Times article on rent prices. It is not balanced at all. In fact, all the comments come from estate agents, talking about serious investors in it for the long haul, and how “anecdotal” evidence suggests queues around the corner. It says that rents are up 20% this year, and are now levelling off, but does not say where it got those figures from. Daft.ie didn’t even say that, while the CSO give a much more modest 12% - with a drop in September and zero growth in October, the last month for which figures are available. Finally, here’s Edel Morgan talking about her own investigations into the rental market.
“Most of the agents I spoke to claim there has been low level investor activity in the last four months. The consensus seems to be that they are serial investors that are in it for the long haul. “They see a cycle and they think it’s a good time to buy and get a good price,” says Barry Finnegan of Sherry FitzGerald lettings. “They are acting now before interest rates pull back next year.” He says yields have slowly improved, and claims it is possible to achieve yields as high as 4.75 per cent in parts of west Dublin.”
The “serious investors” think its a smart time to buy again. “They see a cycle” “they are acting now…” 1st year advertising claptrap.
And the Irish Times calls this reportage?
The link to the article.
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/property/2007/1206/1196838948256.html
Having given up on trying to sell a house last year, I’m delighted to have found tenants for it 2 months ago. I just hope they don’t read this blog and decide to move elsewhere to save cash! The worrying part (or maximum shadenfreude part - depending on your circumstance) of this whole story is yet to un-fold, what will happen to rental income when the 10,000+ apartments - not yet built but nearing completion - come onto the rental market. And on to the rental market they will surely go, as the developers have a snow-ball’s chance of selling them. If I was a brickie working on a development in Dublin at present, I would be demanding daily pay! Mr Tagomi, you have my sympathies but do yourself a favour and take your properties off the market or drop their price by a third. G
Gareth, I genuinely happy to hear that. It’s tough, all of this. and on so many people as well. Thing is, this should be in the mainstream press, instead of on a blogsite with less than 200 readers. But there you go. That’s Irish journalism for you. Press releases from estate agents make the front page, while analysis is left to the periphery.
All right, maybe the article has some estate agent blather, but it does say that rents have flattened out, which they have. And there’s not really much doubt that they have risen recently. By how much, I have no idea.
Although, are we talking about the same article? The one I read talked about people having set rents way too high and failing to get tenants.
One claim is borne out anecdotally, for me at least. We have just agreed a sale on one of our apartments to an investor. We had to drop the price drastically, but we don’t mind as long as we buy at the same market level or lower.
I’m well aware that reporting in the media on the state of the market has been utter bilge. They talk about prices having dropped 3 or 4% this year so far, when it’s more like 15% or even 20%.
I do blame the govt for the property bubble, not you! Don’t really understand why sonofstan thinks I am blaming you.
But there was idiocy involved in the bubble, especially in the last two years of it when it was clear that prices were absolutely off the scale of ludicrousness. Why did people keep buying? Why were they willing to take out 100% mortgages? It was clear as day that prices were going to fall back.
Anyway, I wholeheartedly share your disgust at the whole situation. Gombeen Ireland is alive and well.
Don’t really understand why sonofstan thinks I am blaming you.
I meant your comment about ‘the hint of glee’ and I was connecting it with the propoganda coming until recently from govt. and media that doommongers were somehow dragging down the market - that it was in some way unpatriotic to point out that bubbles burst. I didn’t think you were actually blaming Dublin Opinion
Actually, there’s a lot of doubt about the media claim rents rising. Any research I’ve done shows rents falling.
and I don’t see this as goombeen Ireland at all. I see this in terms of class - where we have an industrial and business elite setting the economic policy of the entire country, and twisting it to suit their financial concerns.
We then have the situation where our tax money is then used to bail out these same interests once things get tough.
goombeen Ireland conjures up images of Halls Pictorial Weekly for me, and the guys who are ripping us off are a few hundred billion Euro away from those caricatures. The only parish pumps these guys see are 24 carrot ones.
finally, 1) people keep on buying because the politicians and the mainstream media kept on telling them everything was ok - the “boomer times” of Berites world and 2) the “experts” in the banks kept on giving them loans, assuring them that they were making sound financial investments, even when they plainly could not afford to buy. And 3) we have the fear factor. The “it’s your pension” reason to buy property. These cunts used all the marketing tricks in the (very old) book, and by god it worked. They stimulated prices through the hype of false demand, even though all the figures show that we have vast amounts of unoccupied property, and were allowed to so so completely unchallenged.
They would still be doing it now were it not for the end of cheap credit via the international credit burst bubble. none of this is in any way comparable to the local councillors and “gombeen” Kilinaskully image.
These guys are fucking pros. and they have mugged us.
Well, what you have described there is gombeenism as far as I’m concerned. Granted, it’s a sophisticated, 24-carat brand of gombeenism, but still, it’s the same mentality. I think Bush’s regime in America is probably the apex of gombeenism in the history of the planet. I’d say Bertie and co are in awe of the achievements of those lads.
As for rents, just another anecdote - the apartment below us here was vacated about three months ago, and one evening there were prospective tenants literally queuing down the car park to view it.
From my experience of viewing houses this year, there are loads of people who want to purchase houses and apartments but either cannot at the moment or are afraid to. Obviously, if the first-time buyers among these have not bought already, then they are renting.
I think Cowan’s stamp-duty move may do something to progress some of the stalled property chains out there. I certainly hope so. My gut feeling is that the market won’t bottom out until the middle of 2008, and that is assuming the global financial situation doesn’t get any worse.
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