IRISH TIMES PREDICTIONS: NOT WORTH THE PRESS RELEASE THEY’RE WRITTEN ON
Nov 27th, 2007 by Conor McCabe
Thanks to the property pin for this one.
On Thursday 30 August 2007, Irish Times property editor Orla Mulcahy wrote a piece (sub required) about the “swish” Grange apartments in Stillorgan, Co Dublin. “It’s that time of year when student accommodation becomes a burning issue” said Orla, “with thousands of young people moving to the capital to take up residence. For most of them it will be a hard slog to find a place to stay but, for a lucky few, this year’s gaff will be a luxury apartment on the southside.”
Remember, this was not an advertisement piece, this was a proper property article - albeit one written for the owner of a €50 million property website.
She goes on.
The Grange, located off Brewery Road, is about as far from the traditional student flat as you can get. The apartments are big and airy with marble-tiled floors, gleaming Italian-style fitted kitchen with all appliances, immaculately designed bathrooms with trendy shelving and directional lights. And then there is Ted. Ted Robinson is the newly appointed concierge who will head up a team of four dedicated to making life easier for the residents round-the-clock.Ted, a cheerful fellow in a sharp suit, will do more than take in your awkward packages and arrange to let the plumber in to fix your washing machine. Taking their cue from the doormen and concierges of Manhattan and Paris, his team will handle deliveries and online orders, book theatre tickets and taxis, manage apartment fit-outs and even arrange the flowers. He will also make sure that, if you want to eat Italian, you get a table in an Italian restaurant that you like. The basic concierge service will be included in the service charge which will work out at approximately €1,900 per month for a two-bedroom units. Additional services such as dry cleaning and car washes will cost extra at rates to be arranged.”
The properties are being sold by Savills Hamilton Osborne King, and over on their website they tell us that the next phase of The Grange will be put on the market next spring. The prices range from
“€485,000 for 1 bedroom apartments (560 sq.ft / 52 sq.m.), 2 bedroom apartments from €655,000 (816sq.ft / 75.8sq.m) and 3 bedroom apartments from €780,000 (981sq.ft / 91.1sq.m). 220 units have already been sold and the first residents have now started to occupy at The Grange.”
Now, what’s the Irish Times’ opinion on all of this? Orla Mulcahy again.
Though most of the units now being finished were sold from plans at the height of the boom in late 2005 and early 2006, the development still has plenty of appeal for investors. With the rents in the city at record levels (my emphasis), two-bedroom units at The Grange are expected to fetch €2,000 a month, and one-beds likely to rent at €1,500.”
The Irish Times repeated yesterday the mantra that rents are strong in the capital. Now, with both yesterday’s analysis and Orla Mulcahy’s prediction in August, just how are those Grange apartments getting on these days? You know, record level rents and 13% increases and all that?
From tonight’s daft.ie, a two-bedroomed apartment in Amber, The Grange, concierge service included. Orla’s prediction: €2,000 a month.
Oh well. Still. How about the one-bedroomed apartments? Orla’s prediction in August, €1,500 a month.
Well…. a little bit better. Only out by €100 Euro. Still, what’s changed in the last three months that has those involved in property saying that rents are going up, while it appears that rents are going down? I mean, what could the owners of a €50 million property website possibly gain from advising people to buy apartments?
slightly off-topic, but still on the topic of the Irish newspapers as propaganda tools for the property interests:
saw this in independent today
http://tinyurl.com/2usdo4
I could not help thinking this article was carefully crafted to convince potential first time buyers who are holding out to buy because rents are going up up up. Why are rents going up? because everyone says they are.
I question how accuarate the reports are regarding the increase in rents. It must be easy to track the purchase prices of homes (although that is being hidden too) but how easy can it be to track the final negotiated rent between landlord and tenant? the asking rents are people have to go on, and i imagine the rents end up being a bit below that.
The statement on how renting is now as expensive as owning is completely ridiculous (I rent in Dublin and it costs at least half as much to rent my house as it would to buy it).
But the intention is clear: to frighten young couples into taking the plunge NOW before rents go up even more. the VIs are like water in paper bag…as soon as one whole is plugged they try to worm their way through another.
i meant “one hole” not ” one whole”…..
you’re right about the rent scares being used to intimidate people into buying - the same thing was done with house prices with their “get in early” scam. And there is a way of working out the cost of rent post-closure - the CSO does it with its cost of living index, and the most recent one had rent DROPPING. This is all bullshit about rents being at their highest ever - the cost of rent is related to your income, not to the cost of rent in, say, 1997, transplanted out of its time and context and juxtaposed with now.
The cost of buying a house, though, currently running at 12 times the average industrial wage, IS at its highest ever. In 1997 it was around 6, and in 1995 it was around 4.
now, that’s the cost of the house, not the cost of the mortgage to buy the house. It would take you around 18 times the average industrial wage to pay off a mortgage. And that’s portrayed as a viable alternative to renting?
They are, the lot of them, quite simply, fuckers.
The situation has become precarious. If tenants are not found for the massive number of unsold apartments, allowing developers to cover at least the interest they are paying on the loans drawn for the development, the builders will start dumping properties on the market in a bid to cut their losses. This will have a downward pressure on prices, leaving many young couples who have already bought in a negative equity situation. Talking up the rental market, which is, of course beneficial to the developers, may also be a way of stabilizing a very uncertain scene.
They are, the lot of them, quite simply, fuckers.
….and what sustains them is the decency of ordinary people - long after it should be apparent that the clowns who govern us are utterly in hock to the clowns that sell us overpriced shoddy housing, we stubbornly refuse to believe that they could be all that bad - surely they must have some vision beyond thir own sleazy interest? No, they don’t. We might think we’re cynical, but actually we can’t fathom the real cynicism of those who hold political and economic power here; folk psychology fails us in the face of monsters
I used to joke that people who allow themselves to be governed by clowns should prepare themselves for comedy; however, in this case, we are being governed by monsters, and should prepare ourselves for a horror show!