ENDA KENNY REMAINS FF’S BEST CARD
Jun 2nd, 2007 by Conor McCabe
The general election has produced three general areas of discussion: the failure of Sinn Féin to make any breakthrough; Fine Gael’s 20 new seats; and the commuter belt saved Fianna Fáil. There is, however, one topic that remains in the background - the fact that Enda Kenny will never be elected Taoiseach.
The late swing towards Fianna Fáil has been seen as the commuter belt turkeys voting for Christmas - those who, by voting for FF, have placed nothing more than a two year reprieve on their negative equity. They have done so, the analysis goes, against the wider interests of the nation. They kept Bertie in.
There is a case for arguing that this helps to explain the failure of Sinn Féin to make any inroads on FF’s working class base. The figures, however, show a swing to Fianna Fáil outside of the Dublin commuter belt - in areas such as Cork, Donegal, Limerick, and Tipperary. One such swing in one such area may be explained by local factors - four and more, well, that’s a trend. And outside the M50 as well.
David McWilliams - or “talking bolloxs man” - has been shooting his label-laden load over the airwaves since the votes came in, telling us all how the country is now held hostage to the interests of white vans and breakfast rolls.
The problem with this analysis is the presumption that Fine Gael voters are the pinnacle of grace and social generosity - that somehow their pursuit of social justice was tripped up by the bully boys of the M50.
Fine Gael remains at its heart a right-wing party, one that sees social justice as a bleeding-heart excuse to raise taxes. Pat Rabbitte agreed to lower taxes as a sop to Fine Gael transfers, not to Labour voters. The idea that self-interest is the prerogative of Fianna Fáil pejorative man is to presuppose that Fine Gael are the liberals at the table.
A lot of Irish people do not like Fianna Fáil: but a lot more do not like Fine Gael. And a hell of a lot more people would rather have Bertie Ahern and Brian Cowen than Enda Kenny and Richard Bruton. The 20 seat gain by Fine Gael hides a deeper problem for that party. Sinn Féin need to look at their economic credibility, but for Fine Gael, quite simply, Enda Kenny is Fianna Fáil’s get out of opposition card.
To me it’s very simple. I can’t see how FG can (in the context of a declining Labour) win the necessary seats to overtake FF. And that’s the name of the game. Maybe in 2012. Maybe. But where?
Its pretty much impossible whichever way you look at it. I was talking today with someone who imagined that Fianna Fail might implode - the arrogance of the main players looking for more than Bertie can supply - but I thought this was wishful thinking. The whip in Fianna Fail is too tight, despite all the infighting recently. Fianna Fail have an ability to calm themselves when they need to.
Something else though regarding the analysis on the election annoyed me. It came in the form of Ivan Yates and his rehash of the breakfast roll man. From the IT on Saturday:
” Breakfast Roll Man, according to Yates, is aged 20-45, a blue-collar worker in a factory or building site, “a self-employed electrician or a Del Boy . . . and the one thing he has learned is to look after himself. He likes Sky Sports, likes to drink - and now drinks pints and wine at home, likes that his wife/mot/partner can go shopping and not wreck his head if she spends too much. And he wants the kids to do better than him.”
My brother-in-law is a self employed Electrician. He isn’t a Del Boy. He does work very hard, and is very busy at the moment. But he told me before, one year could be good but there’s no guarantee the next will be any where as good. He’s struggling with a mortgage and the costs of child care and a whole host of other expenses. They are not loaded by any means.
Now, I don’t know how he voted and he does like wine at home, I’ll admit, but the rest doesn’t describe him or his situation at all. For a start, I know for a fact that he doesn’t subscribe to Sky Sports.
Donagh, that’s it, the absurdity of Yates suggesting that you can seriously have a demographic that is 25 years wide! This isn’t serious analysis on his or others part, it’s just nice soundbites for the television or the radio…
I’m confused by your map - what results are you comparing?
Dublin is shaded green on your map. As I understand it, the FG vote there was up over 4%. FF’s vote was up somewhere between 1% and 2%.
Also, when you refer to swing, what are you referring to?
The “swing” refers to the constituencies where the Fianna Fail vote was up (green) or down (blue). Dublin is green in the map because of the following figures, all of which show a percentage swing TOWARDS FF in the general election. It’s hardly a 1% or 2% swing.
Dublin Central 4.9%
Dun Laoghaire 4.7%
Dublin South 4.45%
Dublin North 2.9%
Dublin West 2.8%
Dublin South East 1.7%
Dublin North West 1.3%
Dublin Mid West 0.9%
Dublin south West 0.6%
The only Dublin constituencies where the Fianna Fail drop was down were:
Dublin North Central -6.0%
Dublin South Central -1.3%
Dublin North East -0.4%
The failure of the opposition was the failure of Labour, not FG. FG and Kenny did about as much as you could expect, and would have pulled it off if Rabbitte and Co had upped their game, so saying Kenny is per se FF’s biggest card is analysis by hindsight.
The fact that FG are so alike FF works for/against them depending on the circumstances. At present, when things are good, people might opt for the status quo, but if FF shoot themselves in the foot or some scandal leaves them partnerless in a govt, the electorate have FG to fall back on. In those instances, the fact that they are so ideologically similar eases the electorate’s concerns.
FG are an alternative FF, not an alternative to FF.
Niall, you’ve missed my point completely. I said that the swing towards FG hid the swing against Enda Kenny. The analysis put forward by the mainstream press is that “Irish cliche” man saved FF. I argue that enough people looked to Kenny and said “no thanks.” That’s why the swing for FF lies outside the comuter belt - the place that the mainstream say FF won the election. As for saying that Kenny is a liability is hindsight on my part - I’ve been saying that for the past year.
the FG gains will be enough to keep Kenny as leader of the party. But he will never be Taoiseach.
Is this some sort of anti- FG blog?
Enda Kenny is the type of leader the country could be proud of. He has a genuine love for the country and its people, was a successful member of a hard working cabinet and would never hoodwink the electorate the way “socialist” ahern would.
Maybe some people here should broaden heir minds and stop knocking a good man who was smeared by FF and independent media.
Just giving the facts. People looked at Kenny and said “no thanks”. It’s no coincidence that the drop in FG support took place after the Leaders’ debate. The party needs a new leader, but it isn’t going to get one until after the next election, which could be in 18 months time, could be in 5 years time. This aint an anti FG blog, but Kenny is a liability.
“Just giving the facts. People looked at Kenny and said “no thanksâ€.”
This is too much of a gross generalisation to make. If you’ve been saying Kenny is a liability for a year then you’re probably less likely to revise your opinion now - nobody looks to be proved wrong after all - but the fact is that FG did remarkably well. You can’t decide Kenny had nothing to do with this but then decide he was the reason they didn’t do better. That’s a very selective way of looking at the “facts”.
The most simple explanation is usually the correct one and that is that the Labour Party stopped Enda Kenny being Taoiseach.
but you see, isn’t that the crux? FG need Labour a hell of a lot more than Labour need FG. In fact, FG will NEVER be in government wthout Labour. It’s not the Irish people who are keeping civil war politics going - it’s the Labour party with its insistance in saving FG’s arse all the time. That’s why I could never understand the arrogance of FG when it comes to Labour. We shouldn’t be doing FG ANY favours - instead we should be looking to build a social democratic party instead of just a trade union rump - which is what Labour is at the moment.
2002 was a perfect opportunity to step in and finish FG off - instead Labour under Rabbitte offer FG a lifeline. Labour got absolutely nothing from the Mullingar accord. As for transfers - well the facts don’t add up on that one. In Wexford alone, Howlin benefited from SF transfers - getting almost 2,000 SF transfers from New Ross alone.
The myth of Labour benefiting from FG transfers is just that - a myth. It’s up there with john’s earlier statement that FF’s vote was only up 1% or 2% in Dublin. FG transfers from Labour are codswallop. Again, the facts don’t add up.
you can blame Labour all you want. Truth is, you will never be in government without Labour. And as for winning an election, sure it’s 1982 since FG last did that.
in 2012, it’s going to be 30 years since FG last won an election. and you think Labour have a problem?
“FG need Labour a hell of a lot more than Labour need FG. In fact, FG will NEVER be in government wthout Labour.”
Fair enough, but Labour’s options for government are pretty restricted as well - FF or FG. You seem to be suggesting Labour should have went it alone in the campaign trail and kept the option of an FF coalition open.
Even if Labour had went it alone in the campaign I doubt they would have fared much better in terms of seats - there hasn’t been a dynamism in the party for years from what I can see - but Bertie and Co might have been more inclined to get into bed with them rather than the Greens.
This may have been the case but it still leaves Labour in the same old pickle - to govern they have to partner with a right-wing party. There isn’t a viable leftist government available.
I can see how Labour people might be feeling a bit hard done by because they’re not being wooed by Bertie, and consequently questioning the value of the pact with FG is high on their agenda, but there’s no denying the fact that it wasn’t far off working. Undoubtedly it would be considered a brilliant strategy if it worked.
Also: Did Labour offer a tax cut only as a sop to FG transfers? Is so, would vying for transfers off SF and the Greens have been a better strategy? If Labour wants to progress at the expense of FG, instead of bolstering them, then they’ll need to move to the right. The middle ground of voters is not going to swing to the left.
Yeah I think Labour should have left a FF coalition option open. but FF has a left-wing / social democratic element within its ranks. That’s something FG - these days at least - does not have. As for “Undoubtedly it would be considered a brilliant strategy if it worked.” Of course! If my auntie had balls she’d be me uncle. Thing is, it didn’t work, and here on Dublin Opinion we argued well before the election that it would not work.
what Labour and the left need to do is sit down and work out a 10 year plan for achieving 45 to 50 seats. There seems to be a bedrock of 32 seats out there - so it means winning 18 seats over ten years. At that stage, the left can form a government with FG, but on its terms. Then, it’ll be FG’s turn to make up the numbers.
Of course, all of this requires hard work and ambition - the two things the Labour party has always lacked.
FG not only needs Labour to enter government - the Labour party’s pathetic attempts to act as a political party allow the very survival of FG.
But, at least FG has ambition, and youth as well.
so, there’s my plan. at least an eight seat gain at the next election, and another eight seats after that in 2017. The labour party needs to take all the small parties / independents out of the equation. It needs to take tony Gregory’s seat and Finian McGrath’s as well. Then it needs to look at clare Daly’s vote in north Dublin, and Joe higgins as well. There’s four seats in Dublin alone that, if tackled correctly, could be Labour’s. (I’m counting on a boundary review in joe higgin’s constituency.)
The Labour party has also been handed a gift with the Greens going into government under the most pathetic terms possible. They can grab at least two or three of those seats as well. Then there’s the soft FG vote in Dublin….
As for FF, I think the best hope remains Sinn Féin, as regards taking the working class urban vote from FF.
It wouldn’t wash in 2012, but in 2017 there should be a Labour / Sinn Féin voting pact. That’s where I see the future for the left in Ireland.
Labour attacking the soft FG vote, with Sinn Féin picking up the FF working class vote.
Interesting ideas. All this, of course, depends on how many good new people Labour can bring in to its ranks and I think this is where it will struggle.
My own opinion is that the majority of Irish people have an aversion to left-wing politics. Even Labour’s traditional vote didn’t come from left-wing idealism as much as from materialistic, trade union self interest. You would probably argue the failure of the Irish left was that it didn’t extend beyond the trade union movement; I think this was Labour’s only option given the conservative nature of Irish society.
The conservatism, pragmatism and anti-intellectualism of Irish culture has prevented a left-wing alternative government option emerging and I can’t see this changing.
I think Labour need to appeal to an a la carte leftism like the Greens to make any progress. Looking to align itself with SF, even in the very long-term, would be suicide for the party given SF’s hard-left idealogy. Even if, as I suspect, SF move significantly to the right in the next 10 years they will still carry a lot of baggage.
oh yeah, I mean the best move would be for Laboir to take the soft FF vote as well - and given the fact that the FF working class voter pretty much rejected SF this time, Labour need to look at that vote as well.
you see, all this is possible, but it’ll take hard work, dedication, and a serious commitment - all of which Labor lack. Take FG in the colleges, and then look at Labour.
As for Irish people having an aversion to left-wing politics - we have a fully functioning nanny state and I’d love to see ANY party tackle that and win votes. The two problems remain Health and Housing - on that, the Irish people have a messed-up view - where private venture is funded with public capital, through tak breaks and grants.
Irish people think they are right-wing, but touch those state benefits and see what happens.
EU grants / Pensions / Social Welfare / Medical Cards / Housing grants / Mortgage relief / the list goes on.
but I digress. The only thing stopping the Labour party from being the second biggest party in this country is really the Labour party itself - a party that has more excuses than TDs.